The Big Awards Season Movie Preview: 2026 Oscars, BAFTAs and Golden Globes predictions
We’re locking in to the prestige movie corridor from now until late Feb. These are the awards contenders, blockbusters and indie gems you need to know about.
If ever there was a time to go to the cinema, it’s now. The bean counting herbs in Hollywood are merging into one big 'Content Buy n Large' and every movie release is a line on a joyless dystopian spreadsheet.
Will people go see Sydney Sweeney in a boxing flick? No. Will people go see Julia Roberts in a Luca Guadagnino film? Also no. But will people go see The Rock really, really act in an MMA movie from A24 and a Safdie brother? Also no. Crumbs.
Awards Season is different. Sure, sometimes a Coda or a Green Book win out, but, mostly, it’s a time for actors and directors to wear fancy fits, go on talk shows and eat hot wings while talking about cinema they really care about, cinema they think is good, cinema we can refer to as 'Cinema' while keeping a straight face.
Anora. Moonlight. Parasite. Everything Everywhere. Oppenheimer. It lives!
But seriously, if we don’t turn out for Timmy in his ping-pong movie this Christmas, that might be it forever. So in that spirit, here’s what to look out for at the arthouses and multiplexes, alongside some bold and not-so-bold predictions about which films will triumph at this season’s BAFTAs, Golden Globes and, of course, the Oscars.
Best Director
Unless something truly wild happens, this is Paul Thomas Anderson’s season to be officially, belatedly anointed by Hollywood. Because, yes, the idiosyncratic auteur behind There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread and Magnolia currently does not have an Oscar.
His Thomas Pynchon-inspired epic One Battle After Another (out now to rent) is the film to beat this year and could even sweep Best Picture, Director and the Acting categories at the Oscars. It’s funny, timely, big-hearted and beautifully crafted. This is film-making with something to say that still manages to sweep you up into its world. Plus as the smaller awards show wins stack up, they begin to look more and more like a big eff-you to the Christmas Adventurers currently running America.
But it’s not all PTA all day. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is an intelligent, genre crowd-pleaser from an endlessly creative image-creator working at the height of his powers. Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet (out in cinemas 6th January) is the literary chamber piece that’s making audiences weep, and Zhao has previous form, picking up Best Director (and Best Picture) for Nomadland in 2021.
Iranian provocateur Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident (out now in cinemas) won the Palme D’Or prizes at Cannes this year and for good reason: you can’t take your eyes off this film and it features one of the best final scenes of 2025. And Sentimental Value (out in cinemas 26th December) from Danish-Norwegian filmmaker Joachim Trier is a quiet and understated family drama for sure; it’s also undeniably one of the finest films this year.
Best Picture
The Oscars feature a 10-film strong Best Picture nomination list so alongside those films, which aren’t total locks at this stage (but seriously, seriously likely), there’s five more spots.
There’s probably between 12 and 15 movies that are duking it out to make it into Best Picture, from blockbusters like Avatar: Fire And Ash (out in cinemas 19th December) and Wicked: For Good (out now in cinemas) to smaller titles like Noah Baumbach’s melancholy Jay Kelly (streaming now among Netflix movies) and Guillermo del Toro’s sumptuous Frankenstein (also on Netflix). (Note: We will simply not be watching Wicked: For Good because we don’t want to spoil in any way the masterpiece which is The Wizard of Oz).
We’d like to see South Korean director Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice (out in cinemas 26th January) make the cut. It’s Looney Tunes meets anti-capitalist critique and there’s nothing else quite like it this year.
![BUGONIA - Official Trailer [HD] - Only in Theaters October 24 - YouTube](https://img.youtube.com/vi/bd_5HcTujfc/maxresdefault.jpg)
Also in the mix are ping-pong biopic Marty Supreme (out in cinemas Boxing Day) from Josh Safdie, conspiracy thriller Bugonia (rent PVOD) from Yorgos Lanthimos which features probably the most bonkers ending of the year, Clint Bentley’s earnest but affecting period drama Train Dreams (on Netflix) and Brazilian director Kleber Mendonça Filio’s genre-switching The Secret Agent (out in cinemas 20th February).
Best Actor
The Best Actor race is stacked this year but one early narrative is this question: will we see a passing of the torch from Leonardo DiCaprio, who will almost certainly be nominated for One Battle, to Timothée Chalamet, star of Marty Supreme and by many accounts ‘the next Leo’, who missed out on a gold statue last year? We need certified movie stars to save us from AI and IP slop so we certainly hope so. Leo does only have one Oscar but he’s still got plenty of time.
Away from those two mega-stars, and if you’ve seen Bugonia, we can’t understand how anyone can watch Jesse Plemons’ intense, commanding turn in what is mostly a two-hander with Emma Stone and not want to give him all the awards. Of course, Michael B. Jordan is another charismatic, bonafide next-gen movie star and he’s doing a lot of work - and making it look easy - playing the Smokestack twins in Sinners. This would be his first nomination if he gets in.
Wagner Moura as the lead in Brazilian film The Secret Agent has been getting a heap of praise and lately there’s been a surge of pundit chatter around Ethan Hawke’s performance as Broadway songwriter Lorenz Hart in Richard Linklater’s Blue Moon (out now in cinemas).
Best Actress
Best Actor has two huge movies in the race but this year’s Best Actress conversation is spotlighting a few smaller movies. Emma Stone is doing the Absolute Most in Bugonia so she’s a lock unless the Academy decides they’ve given her enough Oscars lately. Jessie Buckley, who plays Agnes in Hamnet opposite Paul Mescal as William Shakespeare, is someone who feels overdue for Hollywood recognition and she’s one of the leads here.
![HAMNET - Official Trailer [HD] - Only In Theaters This Thanksgiving - YouTube](https://img.youtube.com/vi/xYcgQMxQwmk/maxresdefault.jpg)
Elsewhere, we’d love to see a nomination for Renate Reinsve for her brilliant performance in Sentimental Value - honestly, this woman’s face! Everything is there! Rose Byrne has Mary Bronstein’s A24 film If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (out in cinemas 20th February) which looks like Uncut Gems but for Mums. And Amanda Seyfried is back in the musical The Testament of Ann Lee (also out in cinemas 20th February).
It’d also be a kick if new discovery Chase Infiniti gets in as part of a One Battle After Another wave. Plus don’t ever count out Jennifer Lawrence, who also had an intense, experimental motherhood piece this year in the form of Lynne Ramsay’s film Die, My Love (streaming on Mubi from 23rd December).
Best Supporting Actor
OK, it seems everyone is loving Benicio del Toro in One Battle - because, of course, ocean waves, ocean waves. His main competition could be Stellan Skarsgård, who is just exquisite in Sentimental Value, and perhaps not del Toro’s co-star Sean Penn, who is doing wonderfully weird things in that movie but has been garlanded plenty in the past.
Paul Mescal looks to be a shoo-in for Hamnet; his fellow actors just love him. The unbelievably talented Delroy Lindo needs more respect and a nod for Sinners would be a nice way to do it.
We’re rooting for Jacob Elordi, who moved himself into a new class with his portrayal of Frankenstein’s monster, and Adam Sandler, who is just unbeatable in his ‘sadsack with a heart of gold’ mode, as he plays it in Jay Kelly. Oh and a long shot: William H. Macy just about steals Train Dreams.
Best Supporting Actress
The best supporting actress performance we’ve seen this year so far was in a very much not-perfect film: Nina Hoss in Nia DaCosta’s new version of Hedda (streaming now on Prime Video). Hoss is extraordinary but the muted reception to the overall work might stomp on her chances. Likewise, Ariana Grande might well lose out based on the critical reception to Wicked: For Good, or end up representing that blockbuster via an acting nomination.
Amy Madigan could be a left-field nom for Zach Cregger’s horror hit Weapons (out now to ren), Teyana Taylor is just electric on-screen in One Battle After Another and seems locked-in at this point and Nigerian-British actress Wunmi Mosaku could sneak in for Sinners - she just won for Outstanding Supporting Performance at the Gotham Awards. We hope Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas don’t cancel each other out as they’re both lovely in Sentimental Value.
Best International Film
A bunch of titles - It Was Just An Accident, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice and Sentimental Value - could end up in both Best Picture and Best International Film at the Oscars, given how international the voting body has become in recent years. Strange times.
The Voice of Hind Rajab (out in cinemas 16th January) from Tunisian film-maker Kaoutha Ben Henia deserves a place in the final nominations list. Based on a true story, it’s a heart-breaking watch, blending documentary and drama, which shows the pure terror and pure humanity of the day-to-day lives of the Palestinian Red Crescent emergency services operating in Gaza. Its champions include Jonathan Glazer, Joaquin Phoenix and Alfonso Cuarón.
Also in the conversation, French-Spanish filmmaker Oliver Laxe’s Sirāt (out in cinemas 27th February) follows a father who, together with his son, is looking for his missing daughter amongst mountain raves in Morocco. Left-Handed Girl (on Netflix) from Shih-Ching Tsou, is a Taiwanese family drama centred around a noodle stand.
Akinola Davies Jnr’s Nigeria-set debut My Father’s Shadow (out in cinemas 6th February) just picked up some acting awards at BIFA and the Gothams, including for Sope Dirisu. Finally, the German film Sound of Falling (out in cinemas 6th March) by Mascha Schilinski, which tells four stories in different time periods, all set on the same farm, has been picking up momentum on the festival circuit.
Best Animated Feature
In animation, the race is very much Zootropolis 2 (out now in cinemas) versus K Pop Demon Hunters (on Netflix). In our humble opinion, Zootropolis 2 coulda had a few more jokes but then again, it has made a billion dollars in three weeks. And K Pop Demon Hunters is essentially the kid/tween pop culture phenomenon of the year.
Pixar’s Elio (on Disney+) - which divided audiences - will no doubt pop up here alongside independent films like Ugo Bienvenu’s kids time-travel movie Arco (currently unavailable in the UK) with its English voice cast featuring no less than Natalie Portman, Will Ferrell and Andy Samberg. Japanese fantasy animation Scarlet (out in cinemas 6th February) and a French film set in Japan - Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (out in cinemas 13th February) - are also in the mix.
The Blockbusters
This year’s blockbusters, the likes of F1 (on Apple TV) and Superman (available to rent now), should clean up in the below-the-line technical categories. Best Editing often predicts Best Picture but if, say, F1 gets in here, that doesn’t mean it’s winning overall. Frankenstein could do rather nicely too in Best Costume Design and Best Hair and Make-Up, where it will be competing with blockbuster Wicked: For Good.
Avatar: Fire And Ash is a HELL of a lot of movie: 3 hours of hugely imaginative creatures and machines, Pandora woo-woo, a little repetition of The Way of Water themes and some superb action set-pieces that are signature James Cameron. If Avatar: Fire And Ash doesn’t make it for Best Picture, we’d expect it to pick up Best Visual Effects. James Gunn’s Superman will no doubt be represented too but the Academy adores James Cameron. Avatar should also pick up nods for Best Sound and Best Production Design.
There’s also a new category for this season’s Oscars: Best Casting. It’s a tough one to predict: will it go to industry veterans who haven’t had a chance to win before? One Battle After Another and Sinners, both of which have strong ensembles, will obviously be the main players here. But something like Rian Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man (on Netflix) could sneak in on the strength of the players, always such interesting dynamics as there are in these movies.
The Indie Gems
Speaking of Wake Up Dead Man, the latest film in Rian Johnson’s impeccable Knives Out series of mysteries might pop in Best Adapted Screenplay too. (Adapted because it includes the character Benoit Blanc from a previous film).
The writing awards are often a way to shout out cool indies from writers and directors with a lot of potential. So Eva Victor’s black comedy debut Sorry, Baby (streaming on Mubi) might show up on the Best Original Screenplay list, after making it onto the Golden Globes nominations. Or this goes to a next-gen director like Josh Safdie if it looks like PTA is sweeping the other top prizes. And likewise, perhaps Train Dreams gets an Adapted Screenplay nod, if not a Best Picture slot.
The Best Score line-up will be dominated by the main contenders - including Jonny Greenwood for One Battle, Ludwig Göransson for Sinners, Oneohtrixpointnever for Marty Supreme and Max Richter for Hamnet. On a smaller scale, Kangding Ray’s bassy score for Sirāt is picking up some awards buzz in this category too.
The Oscar Campaigns
Let’s be honest, it’s all about Timmy this year. To hype up Marty Supreme, the boy has already played basketball with Adam Sandler in a high school gym, hung out with armies of literal ping pong heads and put out a cringe, Nathan Fielder-style “marketing Zoom call” with A24 executives. Schwap! Let him cook.
In terms of stunts, though, let’s also not forget the Bugonia preview screening back in October where participants had to either be bald or shave their head to enter. More of this please.
Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande have toned down their Wicked press tour just a smudge this year but it looks like we have a new contender when it comes to chaos: Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson who are promoting their Neil Diamond tribute band flick Song Sung Blue (out in cinemas 1st January). Honestly, it’s probably an Oscars long-shot, more Golden Globes-coded if anything, but Jackman declared on-stage at the Gotham Awards: “I believe this time she’s going to get an Oscar.” Love the confidence.
In a slightly more trad vein, if you’re fed up with endless soundbites of celebs being asked stupid questions, Variety has brought back its Actors on Actors interview series. Sure there’s some fawning but they also get to actually talk about their craft. Some great pairings are already up on YouTube including Adam Sandler and Ariana Grande (inspired) for Jay Kelly and Wicked: For Good and father-and-son Stellan and Alexander Skarsgård, for Sentimental Value and queer biker indie Pillion (out now in cinemas) respectively.
How To Keep Track of The Oscars Race
Alongside Shortlist’s own daily film coverage, check out The Ringer’s The Big Picture podcast with Sean Fennessey and Amanda Dobbins, Katey Rich on The Ankler’s awards season podcast Prestige Junkie, and Vanity Fair’s Little Gold Men pod. All three are a mix of fun, insightful commentary, insider-y news, predictions and guests plus interviews with high-profile directors and actors.
You can also click around on Gold Derby, which corrals predictions from industry experts, editors and users for the 2026 Oscars and then crunches those stats into its rankings - complete with odds - for all the major categories. Very nerdy and fun.
And if you’re leaning more towards Hollywood history, dive into the fabulous book Oscar Wars by The New Yorker writer Michael Schulman, which came out a couple of years ago.
Awards Season Dates For The Diary
- 16th December 2025: Oscars shortlists for some categories announced for e.g. a 15-film shortlist for Best International Feature Film.
- 4th January 2026: Critics Choice Awards at the Barker Hangar, Santa Monica, LA. Hosted by Chelsea Handler.
- 9th January 2026: BAFTA Awards longlists announced.
- 11th January 2026: The 83rd Golden Globe Awards at the Beverly Hilton in LA. Hosted by Nikki Glaser. Scroll through allllll the nominations for the film and TV categories here.
- 22nd January 2026: Oscars nominations announced.
- 27th January 2026: BAFTA nominations announced.
- 7th February 2026: DGA Awards - that’s the Director’s Guild of America, currently presided over by one Christopher Nolan.
- 15th February 2026: The Independent Spirit Awards, the Indie Spirits, at the Hollywood Palladium, LA. Hosted by Saturday Night Live alum Ego Nwodim.
- 22nd February 2026: The 2026 EE BAFTA Film Awards at the Royal Festival Hall in London. Host TBC - David Tennant did a nice job last year.
- 28th February 2026: PGA Awards - the Producer’s Guild of America. The top prize has predicted 16 of the last 21 Best Picture winners, including last year’s Anora.
- 1st March 2026: The Actor Awards i.e. the SAG Awards from the Screen Actors Guild, which includes its unique Best Ensemble prize for an entire cast.
- 8th March 2026: WGA Awards - the Writer’s Guild of America. Remember them? They went on strike in 2023. One to watch if you’re keeping an eye on the Screenplay categories.
- 15th March 2026: The 98th Academy Awards - i.e the 2026 Oscars - at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, LA. Hosted once again by everyone’s favourite ginger Conan O’Brien. Official end of “Awards Season”.
Stick your wildest, weirdest, long shott-iest Awards Season predictions in the comments below. Who will win and who should win?
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