2026 Oscar predictions: Chalamet vs DiCaprio, Hamnet, Sinners and all the other films team Shortlist wants to win
One award after another, but which stars and flicks will come out on top at this weekend's 98th Academy Awards?
Will Timmy C ping or pong? Can Sinners pull off a surprise and nab Best Picture? Should we just award all the international films this year? Final voting for the 98th Oscars is now open to Academy members, ahead of the ceremony at the Dolby Theatre in LA on 15th March. So we’ve done our own round of voting to pick who Will Win and who Should Win in all the major categories, based on the merits of the films themselves, the precursor awards like the Bafta’s, the DGAs, PGAs and the Golden Globes, Oscars history (the Academy loves a villain in supporting), the personalities involved and well, sheer gut instincts.
So find below Team Shortlist and friends’ predictions for the winners (we tallied up all our votes) and our individual shout outs to the films, performers and below-the-line craftspeople we’re rooting for. Tell us your wildest predictions and why we’re wrong in the comments.
BEST PICTURE: One Battle After Another
Marc Chacksfield: I think it will be between One Battle After Another, Sinners and Marty Supreme, with PTA’s jaw-dropping crime drama nabbing the statue. Although part of me would love to see Del Toro do the Best Picture double with another creature feature, I don’t think it’s his year.
Morgan Truder: One Battle After Another should win Best Picture because it moves with confidence, tackling heavy themes without ever feeling too serious. Many of the performances are lived-in, almost accidental yet others are over-the-top in the case of Sean Penn - it's an admirable balance many films would love to strike. Despite the grandeur and setpieces, it remains subtle. No cheap jolts but you’re constantly kept on the edge of your seat. It feels like the most well-balanced film of the year, despite how many bangers the past twelve months had.
Bex April May: Every second of Marty Supreme is a riot - an unmatched rollercoaster of chaos, fantastic performances and gorgeous cinematography mean I could have joined the table tennis thrill ride for hours more. Bonus points for Timothee's bum.
Ayomikun Adekaiyero: The other movies excel in different areas, but Sinners is such a great all-rounder that it deserves the Best Picture award. It has sixteen nominations for a reason. I do think there’ll be one snub that will rile up everyone. Maybe F1 wins Best Picture because why else would it be in the lineup?
BEST DIRECTOR: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Sophie Charara: Paul Thomas Anderson wrangled vintage Thomas Pynchon plots, prescient scenes of immigration raids, madcap comedy performances and a few small beers into a future classic. Not to mention pulling off a heart-in-your-throat car chase. He won the main DGA award from the directors guild, the Bafta and One Battle After Another picked up the main PGA award from the producers guild soooo his directing Oscar looks like a lock. (One Battle's Andy Jurgensen will probably pick up Best Film Editing too - well deserved).
Gerald Lynch: PTA has done his time winning Oscars for everyone other than himself. It’s his turn to nab that Best Director gong. Humour, action, heart — there’s a frenetic energy in One Battle After Another that no other film captures this year.
Marc: Ryan Coogler has created a deeply layered film with Sinners. On the surface is a small group of people battling vampires but themes of racism, religion, spiritual traditions and much more bubble up throughout, creating a heady cinematic brew.
BEST ACTOR: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme)
Marc: This is a strong best actor line-up, but it feels like it’s Timothée Chalamet’s time to shine. Even if it’s just to make amends for him losing to Gary Oldman’s pompous prosthetic-infused Churchill performance in 2018. But if you want an outside bet then Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent is mesmerizing. He’s the type of actor that commands your attention slowly and subtly each and every time he is on screen.
Sophie: This needs to go to Chalamet or MBJ. I mean, cinema is in crisis. We need to certify this next generation of movie stars ASAP. Michael B. Jordan is charisma personified - he also just won at SAG’s Actor Awards - and sure, Timmy is an awards-thirsty dirtbag but he's the people’s awards-thirsty dirtbag. These two are both making films that are creative, ambitious and do just fine at the box office thanks. (Wonka doesn’t exist).
Andrew Williams: Michael B. Jordan. An actor hasn't been this compelling playing two —or more— contrasting characters since Eddie Murphy in the 1996 all-timer The Nutty Professor, a performance that was shamefully snubbed at the 69th Academy Awards.
Gerald: Timmy, wait your turn. DiCaprio went decades without an Oscar, and had to do a fair bit more than play ping-pong to get it. I’d argue One Battle After Another is a far more nuanced performance than what he did in The Revenant to bag that first Oscar — he’s so funny and vulnerable and helpless and hopeless here, and still totally magnetic.
Ayomikun: Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon is my favourite performance of these five. He was so captivating and precise that it felt like he had become Lorenz Hart. If Timothée wins, I imagine he’ll give the most arrogant speech (and I’ll let him off for this one moment).
BEST ACTRESS: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
![HAMNET - Official Teaser Trailer [HD] - Only in Theaters Thanksgiving - YouTube](https://img.youtube.com/vi/E2xtmPkuksA/maxresdefault.jpg)
Gerald: It ain’t even Jessie Buckley at her best (Hamnet leans a bit towards ‘Look at me, I’m acting!’ from its two leads), but even OTT Buckley is head and shoulders above her contemporaries. Get you someone who looks at you like Buckley looks at Shakespeare.
Ayomikun: I think Jessie Buckley was the best performance of all genders and categories last year, not just Best Actress. Hamnet relies so much on her performance, and she sold that so hard it left us all in tears.
Marc: Being a father, the central theme of Hamnet was a very tough watch but it never detracted me from Jessie Buckley’s commanding and at times harrowing performance. Renate Reinsve in the fantastic Sentimental Value edges it for me, though. Her acting in the film is everything you want: complex and restrained, with a smattering of hope. She won me over in The Worst Person in the World and has done it again in Sentimental Value. Long may her partnership with director Joachim Trier continue.
Andrew: OK, so no-one earned extra points by dropping (or gaining) 100 pounds for a role this year, but Emma Stone deserves at least some bonus cred for not just shaving her head for Bugonia, but doing so in an actual scene — and reportedly doing the job in a single take.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
Morgan: For the walk alone…
Ayomikun: Sean and Stellan give great performances, but I preferred Delroy Lindo, the scene-stealer in Sinners, and Jacob Elordi, who delivered an unexpected, incredible performance in Frankenstein.
Marc: One plays a ruthless, cold-hearted killer with a god complex. The other is Jacob Elordi. I think Sean Penn will do it, but I loved Elordi as The Creature.
Sophie: The one-two punch of Stellan Skarsgård as the ‘bad dad’ and Renate Reinsve as his daughter in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value: just sublime. There’s a scene where Skarsgård’s character Gustav is outside the family home and it’s like a lifetime’s worth of regret washes over his face. Acting doesn’t get much finer.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Tied - Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) & Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Ayomikun: Wunmi Mosaku is the rock that holds the story and film together. She’s overdue for her time in the spotlight.
Marc: I think Teyana Taylor will win, because the momentum is with One Battle After Another right now (and she rocks in that film). But it would be amazing to see horror get a nod, with both Amy Madigan and Wunmi Mosaku deserving, although their characters (and movies) couldn’t be more different.
Gerald: Head says Madigan, mega-crush says Taylor. In all seriousness though, Teyana Taylor’s the most badass person on screen this year — and that’s including the entire cast of Sinners. Amy Madigan in Weapons, on the other hand, has sorted out the next ten years of Halloween costumes. Beyond Retro will be thanking her.
Morgan: Teyana Taylor probably wasn't in One Battle for long enough, but she was so captivating on screen and held her own against some huge stars. She never felt outshone.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Ayomikun: Sinners' strongest attribute is its screenplay, which so cleverly ties in many themes and ideas. It would send a great message to Hollywood about the type of films that can win over critics and audiences if it won.
Marc: Sinners is such a clever, layered story that will be studied for years to come. Coogler has this one in the bloody bag.
Sophie: If not Ryan Coogler and PTA, the Academy better use the two screenplay awards to honour some smaller titles, like the Iranian filmmaker Jafar Panahi and his collaborators for the script of It Was Just An Accident. Dynamite concept, serious mastery of tone and elegantly bookended.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another)
Marc: PTA has adapted Thomas Pynchon twice now and that deserves an Oscar in itself, but what he did with One Battle After Another is an adaptation on another level, using the source material more as mood rather than gospel.
Ayomikun: Again, I don’t see PTA not walking away with this, but I really loved Guillermo’s adaptation of Frankenstein and would love for him to get at least one award.
Bex: Bugonia's razor sharp characterisation, modern satire, magical realism and total 180 on a typical alien movie make it a standout. Wonderfully weird.
Andrew: Train Dreams was one of 2025's most pleasant surprises as that rarest of things: a Netflix-distributed flick that feels like a proper film, not just glossy content preparing us for a future where most of the jobs in movie-making are half-done by AI.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: The Secret Agent
Sophie: My personal favourite of the nominees was Sentimental Value - which did win this award at the Bafta’s - but my head says The Secret Agent will win on the night. Brazilian director Kleber Mendonça Filho’s uncategorisable film is stylishly put together, with an incredible ensemble cast and a freedom completely unrestricted by genres and conventions. Elsewhere, Gaza docudrama The Voice of Hind Rajab is a heart-wrenching watch.
Marc: I would be happy if The Secret Agent won this one, but Sentimental Value is the most deserving — it’s a restrained yet incredible watch.
Ayomikun: I think Sentimental Value and The Secret Agent are getting the most buzz in international features, but I preferred It Was Just An Accident. A great mix of tension and comedy that touches on a real-life current crisis.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: KPop Demon Hunters
Gerald: KPop Demon Hunters, if only because there’s nothing wrong with being super popular…
Morgan: This feels like a weak year for the category despite the success of Demon Hunters. None of these films would have been nominated last year or maybe even the year before, when looking at how strong those years were. The KPop Demon Hunters soundtrack is full of bangers, though, so seeing them perform at the ceremony would be fun.
Sophie: “You’re my soda pop, my little soda pop” - Arco is rather lovely too.
Marc: The hype of KPop Demon Hunters will push it over the line but Zootopia 2 is a funny, endearing sequel that is better than anything Pixar has released in quite some time.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Ayomikun: Let’s be real, they wrote Avatar’s name in the award the moment the film’s release date was announced...
Marc: If you were lucky enough to watch Avatar: Fire And Ash on IMAX, there can be no doubt that James Cameron knows how to put on a spectacle. An overblown spectacle but a spectacle nonetheless
Andrew: What a meh list, I’ll go with Sinners.
Gerald: It’s the worst Avatar film so far, and is basically the filmic equivalent of a gaming DLC pack — so many ideas and locations are re-used here that it was seemingly once intended as half of the second film in the franchise. But it’s still mind-bogglingly good looking, especially when it goes anywhere near water.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: (Ludwig Göransson) Sinners
Ayomikun: I think Ludwig has swept this category so far and rightly so!
Marc: The Radiohead fan in me really wants Johnny Greenwood to win an Oscar, and One Battle After Another is his biggest chance yet. But at the heart of Sinners is music and Ludwig Göransson really did something special with the score.
Morgan: In Sinners, the music isn’t decoration, that’s the difference with this film. Take away the score and the film changes shape. The atmosphere thins. The tension loosens. The emotional spine softens. It's integral here in a way unlike any other film this year and given how atmospheric Sinners is, it perfectly underpins everything that makes the film great.
MORE OSCARS PREDICTIONS
Best Cinematography: Sinners
Sophie: Give it to Autumn Durald Arkapaw for her gorgeous work on Sinners - and not just because she’d be the first woman ever to win the cinematography Oscar.
Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbor
Gerald: Terrifying, appalling, and brilliantly done.
Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hairstyling and Best Production Design: Frankenstein
Marc: Frankenstein needs to win something and Best Costume should be it — each piece is a gothic masterpiece in its own right.
Sophie: I reckon Guillermo del Toro’s sumptuous Frankenstein will sweep below-the-line in Best Costume Design, Best Makeup & Hair (for the many hours spent monsterifying Jacob Elordi) and maybe Best Production Design too. Though it would be lush if the production design award went instead to cinema legend Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme’s world of lived-in 1950’s New York. A long shot but he’s been doing the film podcast rounds so it could happen.
Best Original Song: Sinners
Ayomikun: Best Song is going to ‘I Lied to You’ from Sinners. It is the crux of the film, so I don’t see them giving Sinners awards in other categories and skipping this one. I think Sinners may come away with Best Sound and Best Costume Design, too.
Best Sound: F1
Sophie: I’m betting it all on F1 to win Best Sound. Come on luck. The vroom vroom movie was entertaining enough and got into Best Picture. If we get a twist in this category, it could go to Sirāt, Oliver Laxe’s - let’s say - singular film set amongst nomadic raves in Morocco, which also made the cut in International.
Best Casting: Hamnet
Gerald: Nina Gold, just for little Hamnet [Jacobi Jupe] alone. Finding a child actor who is that convincingly vulnerable is a feat. They overdo it onscreen, but Buckley and Mescal are as perfect as you’ll get for their respective roles, too.
Ayomikun: Casting should go to Hamnet for the genius decision of casting brothers [Jacobi and Noah Jupe] as Hamnet and Hamlet. If not, it should go to either One Battle After Another or Sinners for discovering new talents in Chase Infiniti and Miles Caton.
Best Animated Short: Butterfly
Sophie: The shorts categories are always fun to work your way through. A standout animated short this year is Butterfly from director Florence Miailhe (on YouTube). It’s a moving story with quite stunning animation using hand-painted oils, pastels and even sand on glass techniques.
Best Documentary Short: All The Empty Rooms
Marc: All The Empty Rooms is a devastating watch, where the filmmakers document the rooms of those killed in school shootings. It’s a unique, poignant look at a crucial issue and I would love to see it win Best Documentary Short.
The Academy Awards Show and the Red Carpet
Morgan: The evening feels like it's Sinners v Marty Supreme v One Battle, when, despite how good the other films are, One Battle will go down as the night's big winner. I would love a Moonlight x La La Land-esque mix-up or some other notable madness, but it feels unlikely.
Andrew: A mild yikes moment when someone tries to do a Tourette’s gag?
Ayomikun: I can’t wait to see the KPop Demon Hunters / Sinners mashups and performances they have planned.
Marc: The US (ne, the world) is a political horrorshow right now, so I would be disappointed if someone didn’t use one of the biggest platforms to highlight injustices. From ICE to Epstein, expect controversy galore. Conan O'Brien will have his work cut out!
Sophie: Conan is a consummate professional and absurdist genius who can read rooms and say precisely the thing the moment demands. Sidenote: He should definitely lead the A-list stars in a chant of “mooovies, mooovies, mooovies” in homage to The Studio. Bonus points for marionette Cranston.
Gerald: I just want Mark Ruffalo to go weapons-free on the red carpet and absolutely obliterate every fucker out there. Yer man is single-handedly baiting McCarthyism: The Sequel, and I fucking love him for it.
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