The 'super-fake' watch crisis: What happens when luxury counterfeits become too perfect to spot?
Exploring the real reasons people buy fake luxury watches — and it's not just about the money...
Fabrice Gueroux used to take just a few minutes to work out whether a watch that one of his clients planned to buy was a fake or not. These days, says watch consultant and author of Real & Fake Watches, the process can take days and require taking apart the watch.
“You can sometimes close your eyes and hold a counterfeit in your hands and there’s something that doesn’t feel right about it, but you need deep knowledge of the genuine watch for that and, of course, that’s what most people don’t have,” says Gueroux.
“With enough time even the best fake shows itself, and the best ones have put in the extra time on the paintwork, the fonts, the bracelet. But even I’m surprised by just how good a counterfeit can now be. Really, this is a battle the manufacturers [of the genuine articles] can’t win”.
Really, this is a battle the manufacturers can’t win.
Fabrice Gueroux, watch consultant.
Gueroux puts that down to the rise of what he calls the ‘super-fake’, which has come about, perversely, through the professionalisation of the counterfeit industry. A few years ago counterfeits were made buy a handful of well-known Chinese mega-factories, making the kind of low grade rip-off you'd see in street markets. More recently factories have opened in Thailand, Vietnam and elsewhere, all to feed a booming demand fuelled by the internet, which has created an accessible global market.
This has meant more revenue to invest in the latest manufacturing equipment and better quality counterfeits. Watches now represent around 30% of all counterfeit consumer goods. (Far, far more problematic is the counterfeiting of the likes of, erm, aircraft parts… but that's another story.)
In fact, there’s now something of an arms race in quality for fakes. A 2023 report by the pre-owned watch dealer Watchfinder & Co noted that, just a few years earlier, 80% of fakes that came its way were easily identified as fakes, with 20% requiring closer inspection. Those figures had now flipped. No wonder most lay people can't tell the difference.
Sticking it to the man — and the muggers
Some sellers of counterfeits have got cleverer too: a counterfeit used to be priced in a way that made it obvious to all but the foolish that it was a fake; now they tend to be priced in a way that still represents a bargain, but not such a suspicious one. And that's bad news for the wider secondary market. It means more and more people are selling their watches believing them to be the real mccoy.
It’s why around 40 million fakes are now circulated every year, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. That’s around 10 million more watches than the Swiss industry itself produces. Some argue that the industry - which tends to argue the moral case that counterfeit watches costs jobs, or are a way of laundering drug money, and so on - isn’t helping itself either. Some brands limit access to the most desirable models by only selling to those customers with a track record of shopping with it, by black-listing those known to (quite legitimately) have later sold their watches on, and so forth. Some customers - even those with the money - maybe figure it’s easier just to buy a counterfeit.
And there’s a twist here. The idea that people only buy a counterfeit because they can't afford the genuine article no longer holds. Of course that’s true for a lot of purchases, but some buy as a way of sticking it to the man - seeing expensive watches as symbolic of everything that’s tasteless and divisive about 21st century status symbols. Such is the proliferation of watch muggings now that some buy a counterfeit of a watch they own to wear in its stead, somewhat reducing that ownership to investment in asset class rather than something to be enjoyed.
Fast fake fanclubs
But there’s another reason. According to Xuemei Ban, professor of marketing at Northumbria University in Newcastle - who has carried out the most in-depth research to date into why people buy fakes - ones of the primary reasons is fun. This spans both seeing watches as part of fast fashion. A fake allows buyers to wear the ‘it watch’ of the moment, knowing well that they’ll have lost interest in it this time next year.
But, more unexpectedly, there are many others now taking pleasure in counterfeits as counterfeits, especially as their accuracy becomes more and more impressive. Look online and there are plenty of fake appreciation groups - whose members necessarily need to know a lot about watches.
“Of course people would be much less willing to buy a counterfeit watch for the design alone, if it wasn’t a matter of [buying into a status] brand,” says Ban.
“And while in terms of its function a counterfeit may not be as good as the original, it still serves a purpose [in that it still tells the time] and lasts long enough to make economic sense. It’s like buying a fake Manchester United shirt. For the few times you’re going to wear it, the fake works.
“But wearing a counterfeit gives them a certain satisfaction,” Ban continues. “It’s not just that there’s little risk of [a fall in social standing] for them to wear a counterfeit. It’s that in doing so it cuts against social norms, and there’s enjoyment in that for them. For many a fake is just another way of interacting with the brands they love”.
Ban argues that the fact that counterfeits are bought by their target audience is the hardest thing for the legitimate watch industry to get its head around. And its not doing very well, which, she says, is why just its habit of just telling us that ‘fakes are wrong’ tends to fall on deaf ears.
“Moral considerations don’t have a significant role,” in the debate, she says, That’s all the more likely when most consumers of counterfeiters aren’t even aware of the potential legal penalties - in most countries buying a counterfeit watch is, technically, illegal - let alone any wider ramifications for society.
So what's the solution for the industry? According to Gueroux, introducing ever more complex anti-counterfeiting measures is a waste of time and money, because the counterfeiters will always find a way around them. Or, more specifically, of copying these too.
“All those anti-counterfeiting measures are just BS,” he says, bluntly. The only answer, hew argues, is for it to push ever harder on improving the quality of its watches, through pushes on innovation and materials. Its one reason why the use of ceramic and titanium, for example, have rapidly become commonplace in high-end watches.
That’s great news for those who appreciate - and can afford - the quality, but naturally it also drives up prices. And what does that do? Yes, it also drives demand for counterfeits.
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