While you were sharing thinkpieces and Brexit memes of no consequence, Twitter user Steve Lawrence has been doing the lord’s work. Piecing together data from Eurostat, the British Election Study and data journalism carried out by Financial Times and the Independent, Steve has made a model that predicts that Remain would win by 52.08 per cent if a snap referendum was called today.
And if that weren’t interesting enough, one of the most fun aspects of Steve’s data is the bluntness with which he’s labelled ‘voters now dead.’ Just look at that stat: 123,411 of them all estimated to have died since taking to the voting booths. Comparatively, his data suggests less than 30,000 of those who voted Remain have now bitten the dust, working out to almost a 100,000 difference.
Over 120,000 leave voters have died since 23 June 2016 pic.twitter.com/HQ6VEfRWNN— Steve Lawrence (@SteveLawrence_) December 7, 2016
Now, if you’re a youngish person feeling a tad pissed off you’ve been forced to live on this hellhole island with its tanking economy and permanent rain because the older generation wanted their blue passports back, you will no doubt be comforted by the news that only six months on, and they’re already falling faster than pound sterling.
Imagine them, shuffling into the voting booth, coughing and wheezing, barely enough blood left in their brain to fuel their xenophobic thoughts, dragging their ailing, shaking hand over the slip, carving a feint ‘X’ into the box marked ‘Leave’, feeling like they’d finally got control back, then immediately dropping dead.
Slightly less satisfying are Steve’s stats that show over a million Leave voters regret it now, entirely too late to change their decision. It’s also unclear how many of them have also died since, so this voter’s remorse might have less impact than Steve predicts.
Most bafflingly of all are the quarter of a million strong group of ex-pats for over 15 years – who have since been given full voting rights – that would still vote to Leave. These are people who have actively left the UK ages ago, enjoyed the privilege for over fifteen years, but would then still vote to prevent anyone else from doing the same. Frankly, I hope that all the 123,411 Leave voters that Steve has predicted dead exclusively belonged to this group.
Steve has taken his model even further, predicting the result of General Election Day 2019, where he forecasts nearly three quarters of a million Leave voters to have died before Brexit comes into full affect, as well as a resounding Remain victory in a second referendum we most likely will never have.
There is a certain tragic sadness in the group of young people who will become of the voting age by 2019, and who (Steve predicts) will be overwhelmingly in favour of Remaining, but will be completely unable to affect the future the dying have condemned them to.