Are we allowed to have hope these days? Yes, if Allen Lichtman’s brain is anything to go by.
The political history professor at American University in Washington DC has successfully predicted every US election since 1984 and is putting his money on Donald Trump being impeached.
This isn’t some Paul the World Cup octopus prediction, Lichtman is so convinced that he’s writing an entire book on it titled The Case for Impeachment.
The book will include Lichtman’s analysis of the decisions Trump has made (and is making) that make him “uniquely vulnerable” to disciplinary proceedings, and argues it’s a case of not if but when.
Professor Lichtman forecast Trump’s impeachment even before he won, telling The Washington Post last year:
"I'm going to make another prediction. This one is not based on a system; it's just my gut.
“They [Republicans] don't want Trump as president, because they can't control him. He's unpredictable. They'd love to have Pence — an absolutely down-the-line, conservative, controllable Republican.
“And I'm quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook."
Helping his pocketbook is something many have picked up on as threatening his position. Keith Ellison, Democrat congressman for Minnesota, has supported the idea of investigating Trump in a debate on CNN, stating:
“I think that Donald Trump has already done a number of things which legitimately raise the question of impeachment.
“On day one, he was in violation of the emoluments clause. This is a part of the constitution which says as president, you can't get payments from a foreign power.
“The day people checked into his hotel and started paying him, foreign dignitaries, he was in violation of that law.”
While it’s kind of depressing that he may be impeached over money and not the plethora of other outrageous actions he’s taken, we’ll take what we can get.
That said, there have been presidents who have been impeached before (ahem, Bill Clinton) and were acquitted by the Senate. And given the Senate is majority Republican, it would have to be some serious level of constitutional violation for them to kick Trump to the curb, despite most of the world willing them to.
If Lichtman’s understanding of the Republican party not wanting Trump as president due to his instability (proven) is anything to go by though, maybe we’ll be in luck.
What was that about hope? Oh yeah, we’ll hold on to that.